Monday, 15 December 2014

Global coffee production set to drop 2.9% in FY15

World in the ongoing 2014-15 crop year is set to decline 2.9 per cent to 141 million bags, compared to 145.2 million bags in 2013-14. The drop is attributed to drought in Brazil, the world’s largest producer of beans.

According to International Coffee Organization (ICO),  apex body of producing countries, the ongoing recovery in Colombia, with improved management of coffee leaf rust in Central America, is expected to mitigate the loss of Arabica. In terms of Robusta, production in Vietnam is provisionally expected to remain strong, while a significant drop is anticipated in Indonesia, given the recent low export volumes.

Production of in Brazil will be six million bags lower in 2014-15, compared to 2013-14, said in its latest report quoting Brazilian crop forecasting agency, Conab.

In India, the sixth largest producer in the world, the Coffee Board’s post-blossom forecast has pegged bean production to grow 13.1 per cent to 344,500 tonnes, compared to the final production of 304,500 tonnes in 2013-14.  Meanwhile, prices slipped back in November, as widespread rains in Brazil curtailed any further price rise. All group indicators decreased, although this was less noticeable in the case of Robusta, ICO said.

The monthly average of the ICO composite indicator settled on 162.17 US cents per lb (pound), 6.2 per cent lower than the October average but higher than that of September. In terms of daily prices, the ICO composite hit a low of 158.06 cents on November 7, 2014, rising to 167.83 cents on November 19, which was significantly lower range than in previous months. Price volatility was also noticeably calmer in November, with a monthly average of 6.6 per cent, the year’s lowest, ICO added.

Total exports in October 2014 came to 8.9 million bags, half a per cent higher than the previous year. For the first 10 months of this calendar year (2014), total exports were 0.7 per cent higher at 95 million bags, compared to 94.3 million a year ago.

Exports have been particularly strong from Brazil (up 15.9 per cent), Colombia (up 16.6 per cent) and Vietnam (estimated to be up 25 per cent), although estimated exports from Indonesia are less than half their level a year ago.

In terms of consumption, early indication for calendar year 2014 shows mixed messages. According to Eurosat figures, net imports into the European Union (EU) from January to June 2014 were 1.1 per cent lower than 2013, amounting to 22.6 million bags in the six-month period. “This is likely a reaction to the economic situation in many European countries. However, it should be noted this data is provisional and could be subject to revision,” ICO said.

Demand in the US and Japan, on the other hand, seems to be increasing relatively strongly, it noted.

In other importing countries, preliminary data suggest that net imports into Turkey have risen significantly. Continued growth is also expected in most emerging markets in 2014, with the possible exception of Russia. Likewise, in exporting countries, full data is not yet available, but initial expectations are that demand will continue to grow at a strong rate in most producing countries. Again, this will be affected by economic growth prospects, ICO added.


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